A Trap or a Theatre? Rethinking the Thucydides Trap in INDIA- CHINA Context

Abstract

The Thucydides Trap, a concept that describes the inevitability of conflict between a rising and an established power, has often been applied to the India-China rivalry, which is one of the most significant Geopolitical contests of the 21st century. Both ancient civilizations have long engaged in diplomatic, military and economic interactions. Unlike the Western hegemonic struggles, their rivalry is shaped by distinct historical and strategic philosophies necessitating an alternative analytical framework since this existing binary framework may not fully encapsulate the complexity of the India-China relationship as application of thucydides trap often overlooks indigenous strategic traditions and their implications for power competition and conflict avoidance. This study aims to explore whether the rivalry fits the traditional thucydides trap model or represents a unique civilizational balancing act with distinct Geopolitical and strategic characteristics. The study employs a qualitative approach, analysing historical texts, policy documents and contemporary Geopolitical advancements to examine the India – China competition from multiple strategic perspectives. The key findings indicate that their rivalry is shaped more by strategic containment, economic interdependence and soft power competition rather than an inevitable trajectory towards war. Their Conflict remains confined to border tensions, regional power struggles and controlled escalation rather than full-scale military confrontation. This implies that understanding the rivalry beyond the thucydides trap can inform diplomatic strategies, regional policy-making and global power dynamics offering alternative models of power competition rooted in Asian strategic traditions.